Market Insights: Bills vs Broncos Betting Analysis

2025 AFC Divisional Round | Saturday, January 17, 2026 (4:30 PM ET)

The AFC Divisional Round opens in Denver with one of the most quietly misunderstood matchups of the weekend. The Buffalo Bills arrive at Mile High as slight road favorites against a Broncos team that earned the higher seed, a bye, and home-field advantage — yet the betting market continues to lean toward Buffalo.

At NFL Forecaster, this is the type of spot we slow down for.

Using Coaching Impact Value (CIV), Scheme Synergy Score (SSS), and Clutch Performance Differential (CPD) — with DraftKings as the sportsbook of record — this matchup highlights several market misalignments driven more by quarterback reputation than by current offensive structure.

Market Snapshot (DraftKings)

Spread: Bills -1.5
Moneyline: Bills -120 | Broncos +100
Total: 47.5

The market is telling a clear story: Buffalo is being priced as the better team on a neutral field, despite playing on the road, at altitude, against a healthier defense.

That assumption deserves scrutiny.

Injury Context That Changes the Game Shape

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo enters the Divisional Round with a materially altered offensive profile:

Gabe Davis — OUT (IR)
Curtis Samuel — OUT (IR)
Tyrell Shavers — OUT (IR)
Dalton Kincaid — Questionable
Jordan Poyer — OUT

This is not a minor depth issue. It compresses Buffalo’s passing tree and removes several intermediate and perimeter stressors that typically insulate Josh Allen from defensive structure.

The result is an offense that becomes:

More checkdown-oriented
More scramble-dependent
Less explosive by design

Against disciplined defenses, that shift matters.

Denver Broncos

Denver, by contrast, enters this game relatively healthy in the trenches and the second level — critical against a quarterback-centric offense. The Broncos are able to deploy their preferred defensive structure without compensating for missing pieces.

CIV: Why This Game Profiles as Tight

From a Coaching Impact Value (CIV) perspective, this is not a shootout profile.

Sean Payton’s Broncos have consistently shown:

Early-down discipline
Willingness to shorten games
Low tolerance for unnecessary variance

Buffalo’s CIV advantage typically shows up when their offense is intact and able to dictate spacing. With the current injury profile, that advantage narrows.

CIV takeaway:

Denver is well-positioned to control pace and possession, even if they don’t control the scoreboard. That’s a dangerous profile for a short road favorite.

SSS: Where Buffalo’s Margin Shrinks

The Scheme Synergy Score (SSS) highlights the structural issue for Buffalo.

Without key receivers, Buffalo becomes easier to defend with:

Split-safety looks
Zone coverage that rallies to the ball
Forced patience on early downs

Denver’s defensive structure is designed to limit YAC and eliminate free explosives. That alignment lowers Buffalo’s efficiency ceiling and increases the likelihood of longer, grind-it-out drives.

CPD: Late-Game Volume Is Not Guaranteed

Josh Allen’s late-game reputation is earned — but CPD is about likelihood, not highlights.

Denver’s CPD profile suggests:

Fewer total possessions
Longer drives when games stay close
Reduced desperation scenarios

If Denver avoids falling behind early, Buffalo may never reach the type of late-game script that inflates passing volume.

That matters for both sides — and especially for props.

DraftKings Market-Misaligned Props

The following props are not labeled as mathematically +EV.

They are flagged as Market-Misaligned, meaning DraftKings’ pricing assumes a version of this game that does not align with personnel, scheme, or late-game tendencies.

Josh Allen —

UNDER 211.5 Passing Yards

(-112, DraftKings)

Classification: Market-Misaligned

This number still reflects a full-strength Buffalo offense.

In reality:

The passing tree is compressed
YAC potential is reduced
Scrambles and checkdowns substitute for air yards

From an SSS perspective, Denver’s zone structure forces short completions. From a CPD perspective, this game does not guarantee the type of late-game volume that pushes Allen into the 230–260 range.

Allen can play well — and still land under this number.

Bo Nix —

UNDER 213.5 Passing Yards

(-111, DraftKings)

Classification: Market-Misaligned

This line assumes Denver will need passing volume to keep pace.

That assumption conflicts with Denver’s CIV profile, which favors:

Ball control
Run-neutral or run-leaning scripts
Protecting field position

In a home playoff game with a tight spread, Sean Payton has no incentive to put this game on Nix’s arm.

Efficiency, not volume, is the expected path.

Courtland Sutton —

OVER 49.5 Receiving Yards

(-110, DraftKings)

Classification: Market-Misaligned

If you’re playing an Over in this game, it should be role-concentrated, not volume-dependent.

Sutton fits that profile:

Stable target share
Primary perimeter option
Reliable usage across scripts

Even in a lower-scoring environment, Sutton’s role supports clearing this number without needing elevated pass attempts.

Market Misread Summary

The market is:

Overweighting Josh Allen’s reputation
Underweighting Buffalo’s offensive attrition
Slightly overstating the likelihood of a high-tempo game

That creates market misalignment on:

Passing unders
Role-concentrated receiver overs
Denver as a side in a controlled environment

📊 NFL Forecaster Bet Slip (DraftKings)

Primary Plays

✅ Broncos +1.5 / Moneyline
✅ Josh Allen UNDER 211.5 passing yards (Market-Misaligned)

Secondary Plays

➕ Bo Nix UNDER 213.5 passing yards (Market-Misaligned)
➕ Courtland Sutton OVER 49.5 receiving yards (Market-Misaligned)

Leans

🔽 Game Total UNDER 47.5

All plays derived from CIV, SSS, and CPD alignment. Process > labels.

Final Word

This is not a Josh Allen fade.

It’s a structure bet.

When a road favorite with a compromised passing tree is priced above a disciplined, healthy home team, the market is often telling a story that no longer fits the football.

NFL Forecaster looks for those moments — not to chase certainty, but to identify where assumptions break down.

This game profiles as tight, controlled, and lower-variance than the market implies.

And that’s where market misalignment lives.

NFL Forecaster