The New Orleans Saints, energized by new head coach Kellen Moore, are poised to unleash a dynamic, pass-heavy offense in the 2025 NFL season. With Spencer Rattler taking over as quarterback post-Derek Carr’s retirement, and stars like Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave set to capitalize on Moore’s innovative scheme, the Saints aim to build on their 7-10 record from 2024.

Using three novel team metrics—Coaching Impact Value (CIV), Scheme Synergy Score (SSS), and Clutch Performance Differential (CPD)—plus ten player metrics to explore the 2025 Saints below. 

Coaching Changes: A Bold Offensive Shift

• Fired: Head Coach Dennis Allen (18-25 record, 7-10 in 2024). His conservative approach limited the offense to 21.4 PPG.
• Hired:
  • Head Coach: Kellen Moore (former Eagles OC), who calls plays, introducing a pass-heavy, motion-rich offense that powered Philadelphia to 27.5 PPG and 380.1 YPG in 2024.
  • Offensive Coordinator: Doug Nussmeier (former Eagles QB coach), focusing on quarterback development and play integration.
  • Defensive Coordinator: Brandon Staley (former Chargers HC), implementing a 3-4 scheme with zone coverage and aggressive pressure.
• Roster Snapshot: As of May 13, 2025, the offense features QB Spencer Rattler, RB Alvin Kamara, WR Chris Olave, TE Juwan Johnson, and an O-line with Ryan Ramczyk, Erik McCoy, and rookie Kelvin Banks Jr. (No. 15 pick). The defense includes DE Carl Granderson, LB Demario Davis, and S Tyrann Mathieu; CB Marshon Lattimore was traded to Washington for draft picks.

Offensive Impact: Moore’s Pass-Heavy Surge

Why Moore’s Scheme Thrives

Moore’s offense, which ranked top-10 in yards per play (5.5) with the Eagles in 2024, leverages pre-snap motion, deep throws, and yards after catch (YAC) to maximize production. This scheme perfectly suits Kamara’s 5.5 YAC per reception and Olave’s 8.0 yards per target. The O-line, bolstered by Banks Jr.’s 95th percentile PFF pass-blocking grade, projects top-15 pass protection, reducing Rattler’s sacks from 40 to ~30.

The question remains: Can Olave emerge as a PPR WR1 in Moore’s system?

Standout Player Correlation

• Alvin Kamara: His 2024 performance (1,102 rushing yards, 75 receptions, 7 TDs, OCI 1.20) aligns with Moore’s scheme, which boosted Saquon Barkley to 91 receptions in 2024. Kamara’s versatility (YACE 1.2) projects 60 receptions, 900 rushing yards, and 8 TDs, cementing RB2 status with RB1 upside.
• Chris Olave: With 1,123 receiving yards in 2024 (IES 0.71, RZOS 22%), Olave fits Moore’s deep-passing attack, similar to A.J. Brown’s 1,456 yards under Moore in 2024. He projects 85 receptions, 1,150 yards, and 8 TDs, a WR2 with WR1 potential.
• Spencer Rattler: Limited to 800 passing yards in 2024 relief duty (CER 1.4), Rattler’s quick release suits Moore’s system, projecting 3,500 passing yards, 22 TDs, and 10 INTs as a QB2 for superflex leagues.
• Juwan Johnson: Recorded 35 receptions in 2024 (OCI 1.15), projecting 40 receptions and 500 yards as a TE2 sleeper in PPR leagues, benefiting from Moore’s TE-friendly scheme.

Metric Insights

• CIV Projection:
  • Historical (2018-2023, Cowboys/Chargers): Averaged +5 Points Above Expected (PAE), CIV ~4.5, with 27.8 PPG in Dallas, 2021.
  • 2024 (Eagles): +5 PAE, CIV ~4.8, with 27.5 PPG and a 71.2% completion rate.
  • 2025 Projection: +3 PAE, 1.1 Efficiency Multiplier, 1.0 Turnover Impact, yielding a CIV ~3.8, projecting 22 PPG (from 21.4), tempered by Rattler’s inexperience.
• SSS: Moore’s scheme leverages Kamara’s YAC and Olave’s route-running (Player Talent Match: 82.0 PFF average). With 65% pass plays (Scheme Execution Rate) and a solid O-line (Roster Alignment Factor: 1.0), the SSS ~4.4 boosts RB, WR, and TE fantasy output.
• CPD: Moore’s clutch play-calling (0.16 clutch EPA/play in 2024, top-5) outperforms non-clutch (0.05 EPA/play), with 20% clutch snaps, yielding a CPD ~0.10, ensuring late-game PPR points for Kamara, Olave, and Johnson.

Defensive Impact: Staley’s Revamped Unit

Staley’s Aggressive Approach

Brandon Staley’s 3-4 scheme, which ranked 5th in EPA/play with the Chargers in 2024, prioritizes zone coverage and pressure, leveraging Granderson’s 10% pressure rate and Davis’s 85.0 PFF grade. Despite losing Marshon Lattimore, the secondary, led by Mathieu, projects 1.4 turnovers per game, improving on 2024’s 1.2, per Saints News.

Standout Player Correlation

• Carl Granderson: His 7 sacks in 2024 (IES 0.70) fit Staley’s pressure-heavy system, projecting 8 sacks and 50 tackles for IDP value.
• Demario Davis: With 110 tackles in 2024 (CER 1.5), he remains a top-tier IDP linebacker, projecting 115 tackles and 2 INTs.
• Tyrann Mathieu: His 3 INTs in 2024 bolster a secondary projecting 22 turnovers, supporting a top-10 D/ST unit.

Metric Insights

• CIV Projection:
  • Historical (2020-2023, Rams/Chargers): +3 PAE, CIV ~4.0, with 20.5 PPG allowed in 2020.
  • 2024 (49ers assistant): +2 PAE, CIV ~3.8, with 317.4 opponent YPG.
  • 2025 Projection: +2 PAE, 1.1 Efficiency Multiplier, CIV ~3.5, projecting 22 PPG allowed (from 24.2).
• SSS: Staley’s scheme aligns with Granderson’s pass-rush and Davis’s coverage (Player Talent Match: 81.5 PFF average), with 60% zone coverage (Scheme Execution Rate) and a solid front (Roster Alignment Factor: 1.1), yielding an SSS ~4.0, enhancing D/ST and IDP output.
• CPD: Staley’s clutch pressures (0.12 clutch EPA/play in 2024) outperform non-clutch (0.04 EPA/play), with 18% clutch snaps, yielding a CPD ~0.08, boosting D/ST in tight games.

Fantasy Outlook: Drafting the Saints’ Core

Key Fantasy Takeaways

With Moore’s CIV (3.8) projecting 22 PPG, the Saints are a mid-tier offense. The SSS (4.4) ensures Kamara and Olave deliver as RB2 and WR2, while Rattler offers QB2 upside in superflex leagues. The CPD (0.10) secures late-game points, and Staley’s defense (CIV 3.5, SSS 4.0) makes the Saints’ D/ST a top-12 unit.

Fantasy Targets

• Alvin Kamara (RB): 900 rushing yards, 60 receptions, 500 receiving yards, 8 TDs (OCI 1.20, CER 1.5, YACE 1.2, 245 PPR points). An RB2 with RB1 upside.
• Chris Olave (WR): 85 receptions, 1,150 yards, 8 TDs (IES 0.71, RZOS 22%, PAE 8.5, 275 PPR points). A WR2 with WR1 potential.
• Spencer Rattler (QB): 3,500 passing yards, 22 TDs, 10 INTs (IES 0.64, CER 1.4, 235 PPR points). A QB2 for superflex leagues.
• Juwan Johnson (TE): 40 receptions, 500 yards, 4 TDs (OCI 1.15, CI 0.10, 145 PPR points). A TE2 sleeper.
• Saints D/ST: 35 sacks, 22 turnovers, 22 PPG allowed. A top-12 unit with IDP value (Davis, Granderson).

Team Projection

The Saints are projected for a 7-10 record, maintaining their 2024 performance as a playoff contender. Their offense rises to 22 PPG (from 21.4), driven by Moore’s scheme and Rattler’s development, while the defense improves to 22 PPG allowed (from 24.2), adding 0-1 wins.